Additional Context: This conclusion was drawn in a study published in Science Magazine, which used data on USAID disbursements and records of violent events to compare conflict outcomes in the 10 months before and after the January 2025 shutdown of USAID. According to the study, the 25% of regions receiving most U.S. aid per capita experienced relatively more conflict after the shutdown. The probability of protests and riots in these areas rose by 10%, the number of conflict events increased by 10.6%, battle counts increased by 6.9%, and battle-related fatalities increased by 9.3%.

Researchers hypothesize that although aid can itself seed instability — with armed groups drawn to compete over the resources it generates — abrupt termination may be more dangerous than continuation. With the sudden termination of aid, the factors that lead to conflict did not dissipate at the same pace as the stabilizing conditions that had suppressed these factors, such as employment, services, and social cohesion. This gap is theorized to make conflict more attractive for armed groups.

Source: Science