Researchers estimate that ending USAID tuberculosis programs will lead to $7.5 billion in additional patient-incurred costs and 3.9 million more households facing catastrophic health spending in low- and middle-income countries between 2025 and 2050.

Date: 3/26

Region: Global

Country: Global

Topic: Health, Economy & Livelihoods

Policy Lens: Global Health Security

Entry Type: Secondary Effect

Additional Context: Researchers from Boston University, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, the London School for Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and the University of Glasgow School of Health and Wellbeing estimated future TB costs to patients using linked epidemiological and economic models for 79 lower- and middle-income countries. They calculated these estimates considering six potential funding scenarios.

The scenario of USAID termination alone was projected to produce $7.5 (95% uncertainty interval: $6.1–8.9) billion in additional patient-incurred costs and 3.9 (95% uncertainty interval: 3.1–4.6) million additional households experiencing catastrophic costs over 2025–2050. The authors note that the abrupt reductions in international donor funding for tuberculosis may reverse recent progress toward financial risk protection and health equity in these countries.

Devex Researcher Note: The estimates put forward are likely if U.S. funding for tuberculosis treatment and prevention remains stagnated. With new global health funding out for competition, tuberculosis may be included as part of future lifesaving work.

Source: Boston University