Additional Context: Researchers from the Center for Global Development, or CGD, built on the published work of three Australian economists. Using data from ACLED, they compared trends in armed conflict in heavily aid-dependent countries in Africa with similar trends for less aid-dependent countries. Before the cuts, these trends were similar. After January 2025 there is a clear break, with a roughly 5% increase in the number of conflict events for countries with higher exposure to USAID cuts. The original paper uses data through June 2025, but CGD added the data for the rest of the year to find a consistent pattern.

The authors hypothesize that the balance of power between the state and armed groups has been disrupted. With fewer resources expected in the future, the incentives for armed groups shifted to short-term theft and violence. Second, the hit to local economies means a lower opportunity cost for unemployed young men to engage in violence. There are also cancelled projects explicitly focused on peacebuilding and conflict-resolution that add to this change.

Source: CGD