US aid cuts fueled conflict in Africa [CGD] ↳

U.S. aid cuts have likely fueled a roughly 5% increase in armed conflict events across heavily aid-dependent countries in Africa since January 2025, according to new empirical analysis cited in this Center for Global Development blog post. The findings, drawn from real-time conflict data rather than projections, point to an estimated 1,000 additional conflict-related deaths over the course of 2025.